Separate transport cost from time
A freight quote says little about the value of the cargo spending additional time at sea. In its 2024 maritime transport review, UNCTAD described how disruptions to shipping routes lengthened voyages. For a buyer examining a specific lane, reconstruct the passage from dispatch through the port of discharge and inland delivery. Compare like routes and service levels. A longer scheduled sailing and an unpredictable wait at the quay have different implications for the buffer a distribution centre needs.
Price the additional days
Take an importer receiving goods at a steady cost of €365 million a year. An extra ten days in transit adds roughly €10 million of goods in the pipeline, using a 365-day year. If the importer finances the whole increment continuously at six per cent, the simple annual carrying cost is about €600,000. The €10 million is a working-capital requirement, not an expense of the same amount. Supplier credit, a deposit or a later transfer of control can change how much funding the importer actually needs. If the additional inventory persists for only three months, charge interest for that period; a full year of interest would overstate the expense.
Find where the pressure shows up
Read supplier payment dates alongside terms for customer collection. A balance-sheet inventory increase might reflect precautionary purchases rather than longer transit; a rise in trade payables might finance part of it. Request a split between goods in transit, stock available to sell and safety stock. On a route with volatile delays, expedited air shipments can reduce missed deliveries but add expenses that a reported ocean freight index will never capture. These effects should be modelled separately.
Practical check
Document who owns, pays for and insures the goods at each milestone before translating a delay into a cash-flow impact.