Reconstruct the bill
A wholesale market quotation prices energy for a particular place and delivery period. A plant’s invoice can also include network charges, levies and taxes. Eurostat’s non-household electricity data separate components and group buyers by consumption. Use a matching band and country when comparing sites, and apply the same treatment of recoverable tax. A daytime production line and a furnace operating around the clock need not pay the same average price, even under contracts linked to the same exchange. Also check whether the averaging period in the published tariff series matches the plant’s actual purchasing period.
Estimate the change per tonne
Imagine a plant using two megawatt-hours per tonne. Its variable electricity component rises by €30 per megawatt-hour, but half the volume is fixed for the quarter at the previous rate. At unchanged consumption and output, the immediate increase is €30 per tonne: two times €30 times one half. If the product sells for €600 per tonne and the selling price stays fixed, gross margin falls five percentage points, before changes to other costs. This is a sensitivity calculation, not a forecast of a European power price.
Test whether selling prices can move
A customer surcharge could offset part of the extra cost, but the clause may refer to a monthly index or take effect next quarter. The uncovered interval matters. Lower production may also change the energy required per tonne because heating and start-up costs persist. In the next report, compare actual consumption, energy cost per unit and realised selling price. Different movements in those three figures can distinguish purchasing relief from efficiency gains or successful repricing.
Practical check
Model the procurement reset and the customer surcharge on separate dates; matching their annual averages can hide a weak quarter.