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Employment

Germany’s autumn employment rise masks little underlying change

About 45.60 million German residents were in employment in September. Employment changed little from August once seasonal effects were removed.

MCM Editorial Team Published

Illustration: Two technicians discussing a component at a workshop bench.

The unadjusted number of German residents in employment rose by 172,000 between August and September. That looks like a sizeable gain, but it was close to the usual autumn increase. Once seasonal patterns were removed, the preliminary estimate showed a fall of 4,000 people, equivalent to a rounded change of 0.0%. Employment was 0.5% lower than in September of the previous year.

Which measure is most useful depends on the question. For the actual number of residents working in September, the unadjusted count is appropriate. To assess whether underlying momentum changed at the end of the summer, the seasonally adjusted comparison is more informative. Both measures describe the same labour market.

The release also counts people, not hours worked. An extra shift or a move to a shorter working week can change labour input without affecting headcount. Assessing how intensively businesses are using labour, or whether they need to recruit, therefore calls for more than the monthly employment total.